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The Next Birth and the Labour Market: A Dynamic Model of Births in England and Wales

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  • De Cooman, Eric
  • Ermisch, John F
  • Joshi, Heather

Abstract

The object of this paper is to see how far developments in the labour market can help to explain the fluctuations in births which have been experienced over the period 1952-1980 in England and Wales. We examine separately the period rate of childless women proceeding to the first birth, mothers of one child proceeding to a second birth, mothers of two proceeding to a third birth, and mothers of three proceeding to a fourth birth. Our analysis shows that different birth orders respond differently to economic variables, and different age groups within a parity also exhibit varying responses. We have found that growing real wages for both men and women tend to deter older parents from adding to existing families. In the early stages of family building, births are inhibited by labour markets favourable to women. But conditions in the male labour market have the reverse effect on early breeding.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 37.

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Date of creation: Jan 1985
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:37

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Keywords: Fertility; Labour Markets; Simulation;

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Cited by:
  1. Harvey S. James Jr., 1996. "The Impact of Female Employment on the Likelihood and Timing of Second and Higher Order Pregnancies," Labor and Demography 9612002, EconWPA.
  2. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294, April.
  3. Kravdal,O., 2000. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Memorandum 42/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  4. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  5. Tomas Kögel, 2006. "An explanation of the positive correlation between fertility and female employment across Western European countries," Discussion Paper Series 2006_11, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
  6. Karsten Hank, 2002. "Regional Social Contexts and Individual Fertility Decisions: A Multilevel Analysis of First and Second Births in Western Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 270, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Robert McNown & Cristobal Ridao-Cano, 2005. "A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 521-532.

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