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The Great Divide and Beyond - Financial Architecture in Transition

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Author Info
Berglöf, Erik
Bolton, Patrick
Abstract

A growing and deepening divide has opened up between countries where economic development has “taken off” and those caught in a vicious cycle of institutional backwardness and macroeconomic instability. This “Great Divide” is visible in almost every measure of economic performance, such as GDP growth, investment, government finances, growth in inequality and general institutional infrastructure, and increasingly in measures of financial development. Countries that have made it to the “right” side of the divide (Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, the Baltic States) have pursued a remarkable diversity of policies aimed at financial development. Yet, strikingly, the basic financial architectures of these frontrunners today are remarkably similar: strongly dominated by commercial banks, increasingly foreign owned, which lend primarily to government. Stock markets are highly volatile and illiquid, and their sustainability is in question as the numbers of listed firms are stagnating or even falling. Enterprises rely most on internally generated funds, and essentially all external long-term finance comes from foreign direct investment. This article finds little evidence that finance has lead to increased growth in the transition countries; in fact, financial expansion has in some countries lead to soft budget constraints and undermined growth. Financial development and growth appear to be jointly determined by fiscal and monetary discipline, at the macro level, and contract enforcement, at the micro level. These factors, in turn, seem related to underlying variables like income inequality and recent experience of rule of law.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3476.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3476

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Keywords: economic transition; financial development; fiscal discipline; rule of law;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment

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  4. Johnson, Simon & McMillan, John & Woodruff, Christopher, 1999. "Contract Enforcement in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 2081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fungácová , Zuzana & Hanousek, Jan, 2006. "A castle built on sand: The effects of mass privatization on stock market creation in transition economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jiahua Che, 2003. "The Life Cycle of Government Ownership," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-627, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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