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Market and Technical Risk in R&D

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Author Info
Gerlach, Heiko A.
Rønde, Thomas
Stahl, Konrad O.

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Abstract

We endogenize the market risk (at given technical risk) in firms’ R&D decisions by introducing stochastic R&D in the Hotelling model. It is shown that if the technical risk is sufficiently high, the market risk remains low even if firms pursue similar projects. This leads firms to focus on the most valuable market segment. We then also endogenize technical risk by allowing firms to choose their R&D technology. In equilibrium, firms either pursue similar (different) R&D projects with risky (safe) technologies or they choose the same project but apply different R&D technologies. We show that R&D spillovers lead to more differentiated R&D efforts and patent protection to less. Project coordination within a RJV implies more differentiation, and may, or may not be welfare-improving.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3450.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3450

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Related research
Keywords: Market Risk; R&D Project Choice; Technical Risk;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
O32 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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  1. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Dilip Mookherjee, 1986. "Portfolio Choice in Research and Development," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(4), pages 594-605, Winter.
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  2. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Product Compatibility Choice in a Market with Technological Progress," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(0), pages 146-65, Suppl. No. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kamien, Morton I & Muller, Eitan & Zang, Israel, 1992. "Research Joint Ventures and R&D Cartels," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1293-306, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James Cardon & Dan Sasaki, 1998. "Preemptive Search and R&D Clustering," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(2), pages 324-338, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. d'Aspremont, C & Gabszewicz, Jean Jaskold & Thisse, J-F, 1979. "On Hotelling's "Stability in Competition"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1145-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mansfield, Edwin, 1985. "How Rapidly Does New Industrial Technology Leak Out?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 217-23, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dasgupta, Partha & Maskin, Eric, 1987. "The Simple Economics of Research Portfolios," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 581-95, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Vettas, Nikolaos, 1999. "Location as a Signal of Quality," CEPR Discussion Papers 2165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Helmut Bester, 1998. "Quality Uncertainty Mitigates Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 828-844, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andreas IRMEN & Jean-François THISSE, 1996. "Competition in Multi-Characteristics Spaces: Hotelling Was Almost Right," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9613, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
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  11. Duranton, Gilles, 2000. "Cumulative Investment and Spillovers in the Formation of Technological Landscapes," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 205-13, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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