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Market and Technical Risk in R&D

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  • Gerlach, Heiko A.
  • Rønde, Thomas
  • Stahl, Konrad O.

Abstract

We endogenize the market risk (at given technical risk) in firms’ R&D decisions by introducing stochastic R&D in the Hotelling model. It is shown that if the technical risk is sufficiently high, the market risk remains low even if firms pursue similar projects. This leads firms to focus on the most valuable market segment. We then also endogenize technical risk by allowing firms to choose their R&D technology. In equilibrium, firms either pursue similar (different) R&D projects with risky (safe) technologies or they choose the same project but apply different R&D technologies. We show that R&D spillovers lead to more differentiated R&D efforts and patent protection to less. Project coordination within a RJV implies more differentiation, and may, or may not be welfare-improving.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3450.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3450

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Keywords: Market Risk; R&D Project Choice; Technical Risk;

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  1. d'Aspremont, C & Gabszewicz, Jean Jaskold & Thisse, J-F, 1979. "On Hotelling's "Stability in Competition"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1145-50, September.
  2. Irmen, A. & Thisse, J.-F., . "Competition in multi-characteristics spaces: Hotelling was almost right," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1305, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Neven, D. & Thisse, J-F., 1989. "On Quality And Variety Competition," CORE Discussion Papers 1989020, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Mansfield, Edwin, 1985. "How Rapidly Does New Industrial Technology Leak Out?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 217-23, December.
  5. Vettas, Nikolaos, 1999. "Location as a Signal of Quality," CEPR Discussion Papers 2165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kamien, Morton I & Muller, Eitan & Zang, Israel, 1992. "Research Joint Ventures and R&D Cartels," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1293-306, December.
  7. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Product Compatibility Choice in a Market with Technological Progress," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(0), pages 146-65, Suppl. No.
  8. Dasgupta, Partha & Maskin, Eric, 1987. "The Simple Economics of Research Portfolios," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 581-95, September.
  9. Duranton, Gilles, 2000. "Cumulative Investment and Spillovers in the Formation of Technological Landscapes," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 205-13, June.
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