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A Test Between Unemployment Theories Using Matching Data

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Author Info
Coles, Melvyn G
Petrongolo, Barbara

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Abstract

A new methodology is described which tests between various equilibrium theories of unemployment using matching data. The Paper shows how to correct econometrically for temporal aggregation effects, where the econometrician’s aim is to identify a matching process using data which is recorded monthly, and also shows how to identify different unemployment theories on the data. As implementing this test requires information on the inflow of new vacancies over time, this Paper uses employment agency data for the UK over the period 1985-99. Although the standard random matching approach provides a reasonably good fit, the empirical evidence provides greater support for ‘stock-flow’ matching. Estimates find that over this period, around 87% of newly laid-off workers are on the long-side of their markets and so match with the flow of new vacancies as those vacancies come onto the market. In particular, these workers’ experience average durations of unemployment which exceed 6 months and their matching rates are highly correlated with the inflow of new vacancies. This job queue interpretation of the matching data has important implications for government policy on long term unemployment and optimal UI. It also suggests that previous estimates of the so-called matching function have been misspecified, which potentially explains the large variation in results obtained in that literature.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3241.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3241

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Related research
Keywords: hypothesis testing; matching; unemployment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
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  23. Burdett, Kenneth & Coles, Melvyn G & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Temporal Aggregation Bias in Stock-Flow Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martyn Andrews & Steve Bradley & Richard Upward, 2006. "Testing theories of labour market matching," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0630, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robert Shimer, 2006. "Mismatch," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. van Ommeren, Jos & Russo, Giovanni, 2009. "Firm Recruitment Behaviour: Sequential or Non-Sequential Search?," IZA Discussion Papers 4008, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  4. Aki Kangasharju & Jaakko Pehkonen & Sari Pekkala, 2005. "Returns to scale in a matching model: evidence from disaggregated panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 115-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stephen R.G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 2002. "Unemployment and Non-Employment: Heterogeneities in Labour Market States," Department of Economics Working Papers 2002-05, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jos van Ommeren & Giovanni Russo, 2004. "Sequential or Non-sequential Recruitment?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-109/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jekaterina Dmitrijeva & Mihails Hazans, 2005. "A stock-flow matching approach to evaluation of public training program in a high unemployment environment," Labor and Demography 0506007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sunde, Uwe, 2002. "Unobserved Bilateral Search on the Labor Market: A Theory-Based Correction for a Common Flaw in Empirical Matching Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 520, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Martyn Andrews & Steve Bradley & Dave Stott & Richard Upward, 2006. "Why do job-seeker and vacancy hazards slope downwards? Estimating a two-sidedsearch model of the labour market," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0635, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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