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Product Prices and the OECD Cycle

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  • Kraay, Aart
  • Ventura, Jaume

Abstract

It is well known that business cycles in OECD countries exhibit a remarkable degree of synchronization. Much less known is that the peak of the OECD cycle is associated with high prices of labour-intensive products and low prices of capital-intensive ones. We document this cyclical behaviour of product prices and argue that it offers an important clue as to why business cycles are so synchronized. Positive shocks in one or more countries raise the prices of labour-intensive products and, as a result, the demand for labour throughout the industrialized world. This generates increases in wages, employment and output in all industrial countries. Through this channel, shocks are positively transmitted across countries, creating a force towards the synchronization of business cycles.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3019.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3019

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Keywords: commodity trade; international Transmission of shocks; OECD Cycle;

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References

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  1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December.
  2. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Aart Kray & Jaume Ventura, 2001. "Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles," Economics Working Papers 845, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Alejandro Cunat & Marco Maffezzoli, 2004. "Hecksher-Ohlin Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 555-585, July.
  2. Ellen McGrattan, 2001. "Predicting the effects of Federal Reserve policy in a sticky price model: an analytical approach," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked Up and Sticky Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 434-456, 04.
  4. Keyu Jin, 2009. "International business cycles with heterogeneous sectors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25828, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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