Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis
Abstract
We compare the Sharpe ratios of investment funds which combine one riskless and one risky asset following: i) timing strategies which forecast excess returns using simple regressions; ii) a strategy which uses multiple regression instead; and iii) a passive allocation which combines the funds in i) with constant weightings. We show that iii) dominates i) and ii), as it implicitly uses the linear forecasting rule that maximises the Sharpe ratio of actively traded portfolios, but the relative ranking of i) and ii) is generally unclear. We also discuss under what circumstances the performance of ii) and iii) coincides.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2088.Length:
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2088
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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; Market timing strategies; Portfolio Allocation; Sharpe Ratios;Other versions of this item:
- Enrique Sentana, 2005. "Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(1), pages 56-78.
- Sentana, E., 1997. "Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis," Papers 9711, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Enrique Sentana & Enrique Sentana, 1999. "Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis," FMG Discussion Papers dp312, Financial Markets Group.
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
References
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity," Working Papers wp04-05, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2004.
"Spanning Tests In Return And Stochastic Discount Factor Mean-Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach,"
Working Papers
wp2004_0410, CEMFI.
- Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2012. "Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean–variance frontiers: A unifying approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 303-324.
- Peñaranda, Francisco & Sentana, Enrique, 2004. "Spanning Tests in Return and Stochastic Discount Factor Mean Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 4422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enrique Sentana & Francisco Penaranda, 2004. "Spanning Tests in Return and Stochastic Discount Factor Mean-Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach," FMG Discussion Papers dp497, Financial Markets Group.
- Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2008. "Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach," Economics Working Papers 1101, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2010.
- Enrique Sentana, 2008.
"The Econometrics Of Mean-Variance Efficiency Tests: A Survey,"
Working Papers
wp2008_0807, CEMFI.
- Enrique Sentana, 2009. "The econometrics of mean-variance efficiency tests: a survey," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages C65-C101, November.
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004.
"Properties of Optimal Forecasts,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings
234, Econometric Society.
- Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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