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Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis

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Sentana, Enrique

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Abstract

We compare the Sharpe ratios of investment funds which combine one riskless and one risky asset following: i) timing strategies which forecast excess returns using simple regressions; ii) a strategy which uses multiple regression instead; and iii) a passive allocation which combines the funds in i) with constant weightings. We show that iii) dominates i) and ii), as it implicitly uses the linear forecasting rule that maximises the Sharpe ratio of actively traded portfolios, but the relative ranking of i) and ii) is generally unclear. We also discuss under what circumstances the performance of ii) and iii) coincides.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2088.

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Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2088

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; Market timing strategies; Portfolio Allocation; Sharpe Ratios;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1996. "Portfolio Performance Measurement: Theory and Applications," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 511-55. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  4. Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "On the efficient estimation of simultaneous equations with covariance restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 247-265, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Admati, Anat R & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1990. "Direct and Indirect Sale of Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 901-28, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Spanning Tests In Return And Stochastic Discount Factor Mean-Variance Frontiers: A Unifying Approach," Working Papers wp2004_0410, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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