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The Core-Periphery Model With Forward-Looking Expectations

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Author Info
Baldwin, Richard

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Abstract

The 'core-periphery model' is vitiated by its assumption of static expectations. That is, migration (inter-regional or intersectoral) is the key to agglomeration, but migrants base their decision on current wage differences alone--even though migration predictably alters wages and workers are (implicitly) infinitely lived. The assumption was necessary for tractability. The model has multiple stable equilibria, so forward-looking behaviour requires characterisation of global stability in a non-linear dynamic system (a potentially intractable problem). This paper's main contribution is to present a set of solution techniques-partly analytic and partly numerical-that allows consideration of forward-looking expectations. Surprisingly, we find that if migration costs are sufficiently high, allowing forward-looking behaviour changes nothing, so static expectations are truly an assumption of convenience. If migration costs are lower, history-vs-expectations considerations emerge. Agglomeration, therefore, can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2085.

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Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2085

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Geography; Forward looking expectaions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
R1 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 1996. "Economics of Agglomeration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 339-378, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Venables, Anthony J, 1987. "Trade and Trade Policy with Differentiated Products: A Chamberlinian-Ricardian Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 700-717, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Krugman, Paul R & Venables, Anthony J, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Puga, Diego, 1999. "The rise and fall of regional inequalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 303-334, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
    Other versions:
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
  6. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 617-50, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fukao, Kyoji & Benabou, Roland, 1993. "History versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 535-42, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
  10. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1990. "Integration and the Competitiveness of Peripheral Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 363, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lapo Valentina, 2007. "Welfare-maximizing regional government: who benefits from it?," EERC Working Paper Series 07-01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2003. "Rethinking the "New' Geographical Economics," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(6-7), pages 637-648, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Giovanni Peri & Luisa Lambertini, . "Can Taxes Drive Agglomeration while approaching the Global Economy?," Working Papers 157, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lapo Valentina, 2003. "Spatial distribution of investment in Russia: the effect of agglomeration," EERC Working Paper Series 01-087e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marco Maffezzoli & Federico Trionfetti, . "Approximation Methods: an Application to the Core-Periphery Model," Working Papers 219, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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