EMU and the External Value of the Euro
AbstractThe size and economic relevance of Europe may imply a new role for the EURO in the international financial markets. But will the EURO compete with the $US and the Yen for a place in the basket of international currencies? Will that induce a bipolar or indeed tri-polar system, and with what consequences? Two important uncertainties arise from the fact that the long run trend of the EURO depends on the economic performance of the partner countries as well as on the properties of the new currency. They are: a) the international use of the EURO in trade, as well as its effect on the stability of the foreign exchange markets more generally, and b) the implementation of monetary and fiscal policies: how the new European policy mix will affect the degree of international policy co-ordination and exchange rate management. Much of this uncertainty is due to the fact that some of the effects will work in opposite directions and many will be felt gradually (primarily those that are dependent on private sector expectations), while others will become obvious as soon as the EURO is introduced. In this paper we discuss some of the reasons why the EURO might be strong or weak but more importantly why it may be volatile at least in the initial stages. Finally, we calculate the "synthetic" EURO and show how one EURO is not one ECU, an additional reason why it may prove volatile.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2058.
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin, Philippe, 1997.
"The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin, Philippe, 1998. "The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-482, December.
- Philippe Martin, 1997. "The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: a Matter of Size?," Working Papers 1997-06, CEPII research center.
- G Alogoskoufis & R Portes & H Rey, 1998.
"The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0388, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 305-343, 04.
- Alogoskoufis, George & Portes, Richard & Rey, Hélène, 1997. "The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 1741, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1998. "The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency," NBER Working Papers 6424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alogoskoufis, G. & Portes, R. & Rey, H., 1997. "The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency," DELTA Working Papers 97-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Michael Woodford, 1995.
"Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate,"
NBER Working Papers
5204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
- Rudi Dornbusch & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "Immediate challenges for the European Central Bank," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 15-64, 04.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1997.
"How will the euro behave ?,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 1998. "The Immediate Challenges for the European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 6369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
- Cooper, Richard N, 1969. "Macroeconomic Policy Adjustment in Interdependent Economies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 1-24, February.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Blessing or curse? Foreign and underground demand for euro notes," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 261-303, 04.
- Philipp Hartmann, 1996. "The Future of the Euro as an International Currency: a Transactions Perspective," FMG Special Papers sp91, Financial Markets Group.
- Chinn, Menzie David, 2000. "The empirical determinants of the Euro: Short and long run perspectives," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,43, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.