Reading Interest Rate and Bond Futures Options' Smiles Around the 1997 French Snap Election
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to compare various methods which extract a Risk Neutral Density (RND) out of PIBOR, as well as of Notional interest rate futures options, and to investigate how traders react to a political event. We first focus on five dates surrounding the 1997 snap election and several methods: Black (1976), a mixture of log-normals (as in Melik and Thomas (1997)), a Hermite expansion (as in Abken, Madan, and Ramamurtie (1996)), and a method based on Maximum Entropy (following Buchen and Kelly (1996)). The various methods give similar RNDs, yet, by allowing for somewhat dirty options prices, by providing a good fit to options prices, and by being fast, the Hermite expansion approach is the retained method for the data at hand. This approach also allows construction of options with a fixed time until maturity. A daily panel of options running from February 1997 to July 1997 reveals that operators in both markets anticipated the snap election a few days before the official announcement, and that a substantial amount of political uncertainty subsisted even a month after the elections. Uncertainty evolved with poll forecasts of who would form the future government.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2010.
Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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