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The Risk of Deflation in the Future EMU: Lessons of the 1990s

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  • De Grauwe, Paul

Abstract

In this paper we argue, first, that the Maastricht-inspired policy mix of monetary and fiscal restriction applied during the first half of the 1990s is, to a significant extent, responsible for the build-up of both the unemployment rate and the government debt to GDP ratios on the European continent. We also contrast this European policy mix with the one applied by the US authorities during the same period, and conclude that the US policy mix of fiscal restriction and monetary ease was more appropriate to reduce budget deficits and debt. Second, we evaluate the risk of the application of monetary and fiscal restriction in the future EMU. In this connection, we argue that the Stability Pact has transformed the 60% Maastricht debt criterion into a 0% debt criterion.

Suggested Citation

  • De Grauwe, Paul, 1998. "The Risk of Deflation in the Future EMU: Lessons of the 1990s," CEPR Discussion Papers 1834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1834
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    Cited by:

    1. Heipertz, Martin, 2003. "The Stability and Growth Pact - Not the best but better than nothing. Reviewing the debate on fiscal policy in Europe's Monetary Union," MPIfG Working Paper 03/10, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    2. Andrew Martin, 2000. "Social Pacts, Unemployment, and EMU Macroeconomic Policy," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 32, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Maasticht treaty; Monetary Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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