Commercial Links Between Western Europe and East Asia: Retrospect and Prospects
AbstractEast Asia has rapidly become the third centre of gravity for global economic activity. North America is relatively well integrated with East Asia, but Europe is not. This paper explores the extent to which economic growth and trade policy developments over the next decade or so will strengthen European-East Asian economic integration, and what scope there is to facilitate that set of bilateral relationships. Use is made of a modified version of the global CGE model known as GTAP to project the world economy to 2010 under various scenarios including Uruguay Round implementation, a transatlantic free trade agreement, APEC liberalization, and a new WTO multilateral round. The bilateral trade consequences of economic growth and Uruguay Round implementation highlight the fact that as East Asia’s relative importance in the world economy keeps growing, so too does its importance to Europe. The relative importance of Europe to East Asia is projected to grow very little, however, although in absolute terms the volume of that trade still grows enormously.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1760.
Date of creation: Dec 1997
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
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- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
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- Diwan, Ishac & Hoekman, Bernard, 1999. "Competition, Complementarity and Contagion in East Asia," CEPR Discussion Papers 2112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francois, Joseph F., 1997. "Integration of the Central and East European Countries Into the European Union: Implications for the CEECs," 1997: Economic Transition in Central and East Europe, and the Former Soviet Union: Implications ... Symposium, June 12-14, 1997, Berlin, Germany 50838, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
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