Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?
AbstractTrade theorists have come to understand that their theory is ambiguous on the question: are trade and factor flows substitutes? While this sounds like an open invitation for empirical research, hardly any serious econometric work has appeared in the literature. This paper uses history to fill the gap. It treats the experience of the Atlantic economy between 1870 and 1940 as panel data with almost 700 observations. When shorter run business cycles and ‘long swings’ are extracted from the panel data, substitutability is soundly rejected. When secular relationships are extracted over longer time periods and across trading partners, once again substitutability is soundly rejected. Finally, the paper explores immigration policy and finds that policy-makers never behaved as if they viewed trade and immigration as substitutes.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1661.
Date of creation: Jun 1997
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- William J. Collins & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey Williamson, 1997. "Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?," NBER Working Papers 6059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Collins, W-J & O'Rourke, K-H & Williamson, J-G, 1997. "Were Trade and Factor Mobility Substitutes in History?," Papers 97/15, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
- F1 - International Economics - - Trade
- F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
- N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services
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