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Identifying the Real Effects of Zombie Lending

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  • Schivardi, Fabiano
  • Sette, Enrico
  • Tabellini, Guido

Abstract

Several papers study the real effects of zombie lending based on regressions showing that the performance of healthy firms relative to zombie firms deteriorates as the fraction of zombie firms increases. This finding is interpreted as evidence of a negative spillover from zombies to healthy firms. We argue that this commonly used approach faces a serious identification problem. Under general conditions on the distribution of firm performance, the deterioration of the relative performance of healthy firms is a mechanical consequence of an increase in the fraction of zombies and cannot be interpreted as evidence of negative spillovers.

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  • Schivardi, Fabiano & Sette, Enrico & Tabellini, Guido, 2020. "Identifying the Real Effects of Zombie Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 14758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14758
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    1. Ana Fontoura Gouveia & Christian Osterhold, 2018. "Fear the walking dead: Zombie firms, spillovers and exit barriers," OECD Productivity Working Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
    2. Gareth Anderson & Rebecca Riley & Garry Young, 2019. "Distressed Banks, Distorted Decisions?," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 503, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Laura Blattner & Luisa Farinha & Francisca Rebelo, 2017. "When Losses Turn Into Loans: The Cost of Undercapitalized Banks," 2017 Papers pbl215, Job Market Papers.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    5. Christian Osterhold, 2018. "Fear the walking dead: zombie firms, spillovers and exit barriers," Working Papers w201811, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2020. "Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," NBER Working Papers 27158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Müge Adalet McGowan & Dan Andrews & Valentine Millot & Thorsten BeckManaging Editor, 2018. "The walking dead? Zombie firms and productivity performance in OECD countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 685-736.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bedendo, Mascia & Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Siming, Linus, 2023. "Managers' cultural origin and corporate response to an economic shock," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Maximilian Gobel & Nuno Tavares, 2022. "Zombie-Lending in the United States -- Prevalence versus Relevance," Papers 2201.10524, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Paul, Pascal & Sánchez, Juan M., 2024. "Evergreening," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
      • Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Pascal Paul & Juan M. Sanchez, 2021. "Evergreening," Working Papers 2021-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Aug 2023.
      • Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Pascal Paul & Juan M. Sanchez, 2022. "Evergreening," Working Paper Series 2022-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Yacine Belghitar & Andrea Moro & Nemanja Radić, 2022. "When the rainy day is the worst hurricane ever: the effects of governmental policies on SMEs during COVID-19," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 943-961, February.
    5. Fattouh, Bassam & Pisicoli, Beniamino & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2024. "Debt and financial fragility: Italian non-financial companies after the pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Diana Bonfim & Geraldo Cerqueiro & Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2023. "On-Site Inspecting Zombie Lending," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2547-2567, May.
    7. Özlem Dursun-de Neef, H. & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2021. "COVID-19 and lending responses of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Bernhardt, Dan & Koufopoulos, Kostas & Trigilia, Giulio, 2021. "The pitfalls of pledgeable cash flows : soft budget constraints, zombie lending and under-investment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1327, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:fip:a00001:89433 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    11. Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi & Fabio Incerti & Massimo Riccaboni & Armando Rungi, 2023. "Machine Learning for Zombie Hunting: Predicting Distress from Firms' Accounts and Missing Values," Papers 2306.08165, arXiv.org.
    12. Altavilla, Carlo & Barbiero, Francesca & Boucinha, Miguel & Burlon, Lorenzo, 2023. "The Great Lockdown: Pandemic response policies and bank lending conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Krahé, Max, 2023. "Italiens Stagnation verstehen," Papers 277907, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    14. Elena Carletti & Tommaso Oliviero & Marco Pagano & Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G Subrahmanyam, 2020. "The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 534-568.
    15. Ricardo Pinheiro Alves & Nuno Tavares & Gabriel Osório de Barros, 2023. "Revisitar as Empresas Zombie em Portugal (2008-2021)," GEE Papers 178, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2023.
    16. Thomas Philippon, 2020. "Efficient Programs to Support Businesses During and After Lockdowns," NBER Working Papers 28211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil K., 2021. "Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Hilmar, Till & Paolillo, Rocco & Sachweh, Patrick, 2022. "Contagious economic failure? Discourses around “zombie firms” in Covid-19 ridden Germany and Italy," SocArXiv wypmf, Center for Open Science.
    19. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin & Alejandro Van der Ghote & Victoria Vanasco, 2021. "Falling Interest Rates and Credit Misallocation: Lessons from General Equilibrium," Working Papers 1268, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Wagner, Wolf & Lambert, Thomas & Zhang, Eden Quxian, 2020. "Banks, Political Capital, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Vladimir Asriyan & Luc Laeven & Alberto Martin & Alejandro Van der Ghote & Victoria Vanasco, 2021. "Falling interest rates and credit reallocation: Lessons from general equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 1784, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2022.
    22. Lily Davies & Mark Kattenberg & Benedikt Vogt, 2023. "Predicting Firm Exits with Machine Learning: Implications for Selection into COVID-19 Support and Productivity Growth," CPB Discussion Paper 444, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    23. Luc Laeven & Glenn Schepens & Isabel Schnabel, 2020. "Zombification in Europe in times of pandemic," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 011, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    24. Olivér Kovács, 2022. "Zombification and Industry 4.0—Directional Financialisation against Doomed Industrial Revolution," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zombie lending; Capital misallocation;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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