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Population aging and structural transformation

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  • Levchenko, Andrei
  • Cravino, Javier
  • Rojas, Marco

Abstract

We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transformation process. Household-level data from the U.S. show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantitative model to show that U.S. population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is about the same size as the contribution of real income growth, and about half as large as that of changes in relative prices.

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  • Levchenko, Andrei & Cravino, Javier & Rojas, Marco, 2019. "Population aging and structural transformation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14026
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    Cited by:

    1. Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Shiyi & Xi, Xican, 2023. "Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis & , Perroni, Carlo & Chern Wong, Horng Chern, 2023. "Urban-Biased Structural Change," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1484, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Gustavo Ventura & Wen Yao, 2023. "The Wealth of Working Nations," PIER Working Paper Archive 24-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Gaggl, Paul & Gray, Rowena & Marinescu, Ioana & Morin, Miguel, 2021. "Does electricity drive structural transformation? Evidence from the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2023. "Population Aging and Income Inequality in a Semi-Endogenous Growth Model," KIER Working Papers 1096, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Tamai, Toshiki, 2023. "The rate of discount on public investments with future bias in an altruistic overlapping generations model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene, 2023. "Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Structural transformation; Deindustrialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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