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Hysteresis in Exports

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  • Giovannetti, Giorgia
  • Samiei, Hossein

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical examination of the importance of hysteresis in international trade. An econometric model of export determination is developed where the presence of sunk costs causes discontinuous behaviour and hysteresis so that an individual exporter’s decision to stay in or out of the market depends on the current value of the exchange rate as well as its past history. The aggregate level of exports is then determined by the proportion of exporters that stay in the market. The resulting non-linear model is estimated using data on manufacturing exports for Germany, Japan and the United States. The paper finds strong evidence in favour of the presence of pricing-to-market and hysteresis only in the case of Japanese exports.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1352.

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Date of creation: Feb 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1352

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Keywords: Aggregation; Hysteresis; Pass-through;

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Cited by:
  1. Wendy Carlin & Andrew Glyn & John Van Reenen, 1999. "Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness," IFS Working Papers W99/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  3. Marco Alderighi & Alberto Gaggero, 2012. "Accessibilità aerea e capacità esportativa del manifatturiero italiano," Quaderni di Dipartimento 163, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  4. Keld Laursen & Valentina Meliciani, 2000. "The importance of technology-based intersectoral linkages for market share dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(4), pages 702-723, December.
  5. bruno amable & jerome henry & frederic lordon & richard topol, 2005. "Complex Remanence vs. Simple Persistence: Are Hysteresis and Unit-Root Processes observationally equivalent?," Computational Economics 0501001, EconWPA.

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