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Hysteresis and Economic Fluctuations (Spain, 1970-94)

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Author Info
Dolado, Juan J.
López-Salido, J David

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Abstract

This paper uses long-run restrictions on a three-variable system containing output growth, real wage growth and the differenced unemployment rate, to isolate three 'structural' shocks which drove business cycle fluctuations in Spain during 1970-94. These shocks are interpreted as aggregate demand, labour demand and labour supply disturbances in a framework where there is unit-root persistence in the unemployment rate. Our basic finding is that disinflationary policies in an economy suffering from high persistence can become very costly in terms of unemployment, unless supply-side reforms, aimed at eliminating the sources of persistence, are implemented.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1334.

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Date of creation: Feb 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1334

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Related research
Keywords: Hysteresis; Recessions; Shocks; Structural VAR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-21.

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