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The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model

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  • Perendia, George
  • Tsoukis, Chris

Abstract

We extend the standard Smets-Wouters (2007) medium-sized DSGE model in two directions, namely to analyse the effects of news and the Keynesian multiplier, and secondly to incorporate a fiscal policy rule. We show that both the news channel and the government spending fiscal policy rule significantly improve the model fit to data. News shows up significantly, but most of its contribution comes from the fiscal rule as opposed to consumption. We then calculate the fiscal multipliers which appear more Keynesian (with a higher effect on output and a positive effect on consumption, more persistent) than argued in much preceding literature.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 25.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:025

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Keywords: DSGE model; news; fiscal policy; Taylor rule; Keynesian multiplier;

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References

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  1. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2011. "How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 11/52, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Casey B. Mulligan, 2010. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other “Keynesian” Paradoxes," NBER Working Papers 15800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Discussion Papers 08-030, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  7. Heijdra , B.J. & Ligthart, J.E. & Ploeg, F. van der, 1998. "Fiscal policy, distortionary taxation, and direct crowding out under monopolistic competition," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-376256, Tilburg University.
  8. John B. Taylor, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 686-702, September.
  9. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1988. "Imperfect competition and the Keynesian cross," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 7-13.
  10. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
  11. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  12. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," CDMA Working Paper Series 201002, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  13. Heijdra, Ben J, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers: The Role of Monopolistic Competition, Scale Economies, and Intertemporal Substitution in Labour Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 659-96, August.
  14. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March.
  15. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Policy regimes, policy shifts, and U.S. business cycles," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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Cited by:
  1. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 9624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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