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Japon : de la décennie perdue à un improbable New Deal

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  • Boyer, Robert
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    Abstract

    Le contraste entre le succès des années quatre-vingt et la stagnation et l'incertitude des années quatre-vingt-dix au Japon a suscité nombre d'interprétations. L'article procède à une revue de littérature selon le caractère réel ou au contraire monétaire et financier des facteurs de crise d'une part, la prépondérance des aspects de court (erreurs de politique économique) ou épuisement de l'innovation et des sources de croissance de l'autre. L'hypothèse centrale est qu'il faut combiner ces divers facteurs, ce qui livre une caractérisation du caractère structurel et systémique de la crise japonaise: non-redressement de la rentabilité, absence de réduction des mauvaises dettes, multiplicité des recompositions institutionnelles. On oppose ainsi la trappe à liquidité keynésienne à la vision d'Irwin Fisher d'une crise déflationniste liée à la correction de l'excès d'endettement. Le point central de tout programme est, en effet, une récapitalisation et restructuration complète du système bancaire et financier, mais il importe de les compléter par une réforme de la dépense publique, de la couverture sociale, entre autre pour favoriser l'émergence d'un modèle anthropogénétique.

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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/couv_orange/co0404.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) with number 0404.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:0404

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    1. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Genda, Yuji & Rebick, Marcus E, 2000. "Japanese Labour in the 1990s: Stability and Stagnation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 85-102, Summer.
    3. Wilson, Dominic, 2000. "Japan's Slow-Down: Monetary versus Real Explanations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 18-33, Summer.
    4. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Larry Neal & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2001. "Crises in The Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences," Claremont Colleges Working Papers, Claremont Colleges 2001-32, Claremont Colleges.
    6. Dekle, Robert, 2000. "Demographic Destiny, Per-Capita Consumption, and the Japanese Saving-Investment Balance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 46-60, Summer.
    7. Park, Se-Hark, 2003. "Bad Loans and Their Impacts on the Japanese Economy: Conceptual And Practical Issues, and Policy Options," Discussion Paper Series, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University a439, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Stephanie Guichard, 2000. "A la recherche des canaux perdus : trappe a liquidite et crise bancaire," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, CEPII research center, issue 84, pages 35-56.
    9. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2003. "Debt Deflation and Bank Recapitalization," Discussion papers, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) 03007, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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