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Linking Individual and Aggregate Price Changes

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Author Info
Attila Rátfai () (Central European University, Budapest)

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Abstract

Standard macroeconomic forecasting indicators and techniques perform poorly in predicting inflation in the short-run. In contrast, the present paper shows that microeconomic price data placed in an empirical framework rooted in (S,s) pricing theory convey extra information on inflation dynamics. The latent variable model designed to capture the gap between the target and the actual price is applied to a unique, highly disaggregated panel data set of consumer prices. Fluctuations in the shape of the cross-sectional density of price deviations contribute to short-run in-sample inflation. Asymmetry in the density particularly matters.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Conferences on Panel Data in its series 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 with number B4-2.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:b4-2

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Related research
Keywords: Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation; panel data; inflation dynamics; (S; s) pricing;

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  1. Fougère, Denis & Gautier, Erwan & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2009. "Restaurant Prices and the Minimum Wage," IZA Discussion Papers 4070, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2007/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & Hashem Pesaran & Patrick Sevestre, 2006. "Lumpy price adjustments : a microeconometric analysis," Research series 200610-12, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  6. Jerzy D. Konieczny, 2006. "Discussion of: Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," Working Papers jk0035, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 1970. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gautier, E., 2008. "Les ajustements microéconomiques des prix : une synthèse des modèles théoriques et résultats empiriques," Documents de Travail 211, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  8. Emmanuel Dhyne, 2009. "A global assessment of the degree of price stickiness – results from the NBB business survey," Research series 200907-04, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  9. Babecký, Jan & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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