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Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU

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Author Info
A.M. Lejour ()
R.A. de Mooij ()
C.H. Capel

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Abstract

We explore the economic implications of the possible Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers.

Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive. This is caused by cheaper imports and the benefits from trade creation. Dutch exports increase by around 20% (550 million euro). Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour.

If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU membership, economic growth in Turkey could increase more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that consumption per capita in Turkey could raise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU. For instance, Dutch exports to Turkey would rise by another 1.8 billion euro and income by 500 million euro.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Documents with number 56.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:docmnt:56

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Related research
Keywords: Turkey; europe; EU; EU enlargement; trade; gravity equation; applied general equilibrium model; AGE model; migration; regional economics; regional economic integration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Harry Flam, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sjed Ederveen & Joeri Gorter & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2003. "Funds and Games: The Economics of European Cohesion Policy," Occasional Papers 03, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  5. Henri L.F. De Groot & Gert-Jan Linders & Piet Rietveld & Uma Subramanian, 2003. "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns," ERSA conference papers ersa03p421, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ruud de Mooij & Paul Tang, 2003. "Four Futures of Europe," CPB Special Publications 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Borjas, George J., 1999. "The economic analysis of immigration," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1697-1760 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Grethe, Harald, 2004. "Turkey's Accession to the EU: What Will the Common Agricultural Policy Cost?," Working Paper Series 18821, Humboldt University Berlin, Institute for Agricultural Economic and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 595, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Documents 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Karaca, Orhan & Philippidis, George, 2008. "Turkey’S Accession To The European Union: Implications For Agricultural Sectors," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6398, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
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