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On the distributional consequences of epidemics

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  • BOUCEKKINE, Raouf
  • LAFFARGE, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics, notably its distributional consequences. To this end, we build up a three-period overlapping generations model where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival probability of adults and children depends on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. In this paper, epidemics are modeled as one-period exogenous shocks to the adults' survival rates. We first show that such epidemics have permanent effects on the size of population and on the level of output. However, the income distribution is shown to be unaltered in the long-run. Second, we show that this distribution may be significantly altered in the medium-term: in particular, the proportion of the unskilled will necessarily increase at that term if orphans are too penalized in the access to education.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2009.09.003
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers RP with number -2204.

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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:-2204

Note: In : Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 34(2), 231-245, 2010
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References

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  1. Oded Galor, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409003, EconWPA.
  2. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
  3. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November.
  4. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  5. David E. Bloom & Ajay S. Mahal, 1995. "Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
  7. Shankha Chakraborty & Mausumi Das, 2005. "Mortality, Human Capital and Persistent Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 159-192, 06.
  8. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
  9. Deaton, A., 2001. "Health, Inequality, and Economic Development," Papers 200, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  10. Galor, Oded & Moav, Omer, 2005. "Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5373, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE, 2007. "A theory of dynamics and inequalities under epidemics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007022, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  12. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & David DE LA CROIX & Omar LICANDRO, 2004. "Modelling vintage structures with DDEs: principles and applications," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/06, European University Institute.
  13. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
  14. Anne Case & Darren Lubotsky & Christina Paxson, 2001. "Economic Status and Health in Childhood: The Origins of the Gradient," NBER Working Papers 8344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2004. "Orphans in Africa: Parental Death, Poverty and School Enrollment," Working Papers 183, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
  16. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 2002. "The Inheritance of Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
  17. Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2006. "Endogenous Longevity and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 0706, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  18. De Walque, Damien, 2004. "How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment ? Evidence from rural Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3289, The World Bank.
  19. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June.
  20. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1987. "Economic Behaviour in Adversity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226342825.
  21. Nils-Petter Lagerl–f, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05.
  22. Momota, Akira & Tabata, Ken & Futagami, Koichi, 2005. "Infectious disease and preventive behavior in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1673-1700, October.
  23. Denis Cogneau & Michael Grimm, 2008. "The Impact of AIDS Mortality on the Distribution of Income in C�te d'Ivoire," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 17(5), pages 688-728, November.
  24. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00586799 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2013. "Growth and enduring epidemic diseases," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2083-2103.
  26. Nathan D. Grawe & Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Economic Interpretations of Intergenerational Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  28. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chrysovalantis VASILAKIS, 2011. "Fighting poverty and child malnutrition: on the design of foreign aid policies," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2011030, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Clive Bell & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "Growth and Enduring Epidemic Diseases," CESifo Working Paper Series 1729, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2012. "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger? The Impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu Epidemic on Economic Performance in Sweden," Working Papers 2012:7, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  4. Catarina Goulao & Agustin Pérez-Barahona, 2012. "Intergenerational transmission of non-communicable chronic diseases," Working Papers hal-00690325, HAL.
  5. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2012. "The Public Economics of Increasing Longevity," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 200(1), pages 41-74, March.
  6. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00676492 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Azomahou, Theophile & Soete, Luc & Diene, Bity & Diene, Mbaye, 2012. "Optimal health investment with separable and non-separable preferences," MERIT Working Papers 047, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  8. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746913 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Augier, Laurent & Yaly, Amy, 2013. "Economic growth and disease in the OLG model: The HIV/AIDS case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 471-481.
  10. Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "Fair Accumulation under Risky Lifetime," PSE Working Papers halshs-00746913, HAL.

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