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Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050

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  • DE LA CROIX, David
  • LINDH, Thomas
  • MALMBERG, Bo

Abstract

This paper addresses two issues. To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past? Can information on historical patterns help to improve long-term forecasting of economic growth? We consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. The results indicate that the assumption of a common DGP can be warranted, at least back to 1870. Given the stability of the relationship between population and growth, we use the model to forecast income for the next 50 years. We compare our approach to a previous attempt to simulate the long-term Swedish growth path with an endogenous growth model. Encompassing tests show that each of the models contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers RP with number -2104.

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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:-2104

Note: In : Journal of Macroeconomics, 31, 132-148, 2009
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References

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  1. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  3. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & de la CROIX, David & LICANDRO, Omar, 2002. "Early mortality declines at the dawn of modern growth," CORE Discussion Papers 2002030, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 585-588.
  5. Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
  6. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09.
  9. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2007. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-567.
  10. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  11. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  12. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  13. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, 06.
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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00575003 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Laura Leker & Grégory Ponthière, 2012. "Education, Life Expectancy and Family Bargaining: The Ben-Porath Effect Revisited," PSE Working Papers halshs-00715104, HAL.
  4. Gregory Ponthiere, 2011. "Asymptotic Age Structures And Intergenerational Trade," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 175-217, 02.
  5. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00715104 is not listed on IDEAS

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