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Bayesian inference in dynamic disequilibrium models: an application to the Polish credit market

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  • BAUWENS, Luc
  • LUBRANO, Michel

Abstract

We propose a Bayesian approach for inference in a dynamic disequilibrium model. To circumvent the difficulties raised by the Maddala and Nelson (1974) specification in the dynamic case, we analyze a dynamic extended version of the disequilibrium model of Ginsburgh et al. (1980). We develop a Gibbs sampler based on the simulation of the missing observations. The feasibility of the approach is illustrated by an empirical analysis of the Polish credit market, for which we conduct a specification search using the posterior deviance criterion of Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474930701220634
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers RP with number -1918.

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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:-1918

Note: In : Econometric Reviews, 26(2-4), 469-486, 2007
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  1. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika van der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639.
  2. Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Credit Rationing for Bad Companies in Bad Years: Evidence from Bank Loan Transaction Data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 261-78, July.
  3. Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July.
  4. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Garcia, Rene, 1977. "Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1187-1204, July.
  5. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Chib, Siddhartha, 1992. "Bayes inference in the Tobit censored regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-99.
  7. Aurora Manrique & Neil Shephard, 1998. "Simulation-based likelihood inference for limited dependent processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C174-C202.
  8. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "A smooth likelihood simulator for dynamic disequilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 257-294, June.
  9. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  10. James Tobin, 1956. "Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November.
  12. Berg, Andreas & Meyer, Renate & Yu, Jun, 2004. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-20, January.
  13. SNEESSENS, Henri R., . "Two alternative stochastic specification and estimation methods for quantity rationing models. A Monte-Carlo comparison," CORE Discussion Papers RP -660, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Dagenais, Marcel G., 1982. "The Tobit model with serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 263-267.
  15. Christophe Hurlin & Rafal Kierzenkowski, 2002. "A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment of the Bank Lending Channel and Loan Market Disequilibrium in Poland," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 22, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  16. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
  17. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  18. Kim, Hyun E., 1999. "Was the credit channel a key monetary transmission mechanism following the recent financial crisis in the Republic of Korea?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2103, The World Bank.
  19. Lee, Lung-fei, 1999. "Estimation of dynamic and ARCH Tobit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 355-390, October.
  20. Laroque, Guy & Salanie, B, 1993. "Simulation-Based Estimation of Models with Lagged Latent Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S119-33, Suppl. De.
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Cited by:
  1. Claessens, Stijn & Sakho, Yaye Seynabou, 2013. "Assessing firms'financing constraints in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6624, The World Bank.
  2. Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2012. "In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0361, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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