The valuation of power futures based on optimal dispatch
AbstractThe pricing of contingent claims in the wholesale power market is a controversial topic. Important challenges come from the non-storability of electricity and the number of parameters that impact the market. We propose an equilibrium model based on the fundamentals of power generation. In a perfect competitive market, spot electricity prices are determined by the marginal cost of producing the last unit of power. Electricity can be viewed as a derivative of demand, fuels prices and carbon emission price. We extend the Pirrong-Jermakayan model such as to incorporate the main factors driving the marginal cost and the non-linearities of electricity prices with respect to fuels prices. As in the Pirrong-Jermakayan framework, any contingent claims on power must satisfy a high dimensional PDE that embeds a market price of risk, as load is not a traded asset. Analyzing the specificity of the marginal cost in power market, we simplify the problem for evaluating power futures so that it becomes computationally tractable. We test our model on the German EEX for "German Month Futures" with maturity of June and September 2008.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2009014.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2009
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power contingent claims; PDE valuation of financial derivatives; unit commitment; market price of risk; EEX;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
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