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Intradaily seasonality of returns distribution. A quantile regression approach and intradaily VaR estimation

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Author Info
CORONEO, Laura
VEREDAS, David

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Abstract

We investigate intradaily seasonal patterns on the distribution of high frequency financial returns. Using quantile regression we show the expansions and shrinks of the probability law through the day for three years of 15 minutes sampled stock returns. Returns are more dispersed and less concentrated around the median at the hours near the opening and closing. We provide intradaily value at risk assessments and we show how it adapts to changes of dispersion over the day.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2006077.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2006077

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Related research
Keywords: high frequency returns; quantile regression; Fourier series; intradaily VaR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-20, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Joan Jasiak & C. Gourieroux, 2006. "Dynamic Quantile Models," Working Papers 2006_4, York University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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