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Modelling interest rates with a cointegrated VAR-GARCH model

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BAUWENS, Luc
DEPRINS, Dominique
VANDEUREN, Jean-Pierre

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Abstract

We use a bivariate VAR model to model and predict the joint evolution of short term and long term interest rates. We introduce a GARCH effect on the innovations of the model in order to account for the changing volatility of the series. We test the cointegration of the two interest rates, which is implied by a present value relation between the rates. The cointegration test is done both with and without taking account of the GARCH effect. The empirical results for five countries (Belgium, Germany, France, Great Britain and the USA) point to the same conclusions : i) the incorporation of the GARCH part allows to conclude more clearly that a cointegration relation exists ; ii) GARCH effects are quite present ; and iii) the models are useful for short term predictions of interest rates

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 1997080.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:1997080

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  1. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Caner, Mehmet, 1998. "Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 155-175, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J. Isaac Miller & Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2005. "Extracting a Common Stochastic Trend:Theories with Some Applications," Working Papers 0507, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 18 Aug 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andreas Röthig, 2004. "Currency Futures and Currency Crises," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 136, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
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