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Historical Simulations with the MONASH Regional Equation System

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Author Info
Brian R. Parmenter
Andrew Welsh
Abstract

MONASH-RES combines a top-down regional equation system with the MONASH dynamic model of Australia to produce regional forecasts or policy analysis. Experience indicates that MONASH-RES gives acceptable rankings of regional economic prospects but understates inter-regional differences. We investigate the model's properties by attempting to reproduce observed patterns of State/Territory economic performance from 1986-87 to 1993-94. Industries are classified either as national, producing commodities that are readily traded between regions, or as local, producing goods or services that are not traded between regions. Regional outputs of national industries are assumed to be independent of regional demand for them but regional outputs of local industries must meet regions' demands. The results demonstrate that MONASH-RES forecasts are improved significantly by the inclusion of region-specific macro data and accurate information about the regional distribution of output changes in national industries. They confirm that the treatment of local industries in MONASH-RES is satisfactory.

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File URL: http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/ftp/workpapr/op-95.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number op-95.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:op-95

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes
R13 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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