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Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020

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  • J. A. Giesecke
  • N. H. Tran
  • G.A. Meagher
  • F. Pang

Abstract

We forecast detailed trends for employment by industry, occupation and qualification in Vietnam for the period 2010 - 2020. The forecast is conducted using VNET - a large-scaled computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Vietnamese economy. Inputs into the forecast include independent projections for changes in macroeconomic variables; trend movements in variables describing the details of industry input requirements and household preferences; assumptions relating to Vietnam's foreign trading environment; and projections for government policies. A decomposition analysis is used to identify the contribution of each of the exogenous shocks to the forecast outcomes. This analysis facilitates transparency in forecasting by clearly distinguishing and ranking the factors responsible for generating a particular forecast outcome. It also helps researchers to focus research effort towards improving estimates for those inputs to the simulation that have the most bearing on the outcomes forecast for the labour market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-216.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-216

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Keywords: labour market forecasting; long-run forecasting; decomposition analysis; Vietnamese economy;

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  1. Jean-Pierre Cling & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "Vietnam's WTO Accession and Export-Led Growth- Introduction," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 5-12.
  2. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
  3. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542 Elsevier.
  4. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 1999. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre ip-73, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  5. Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une théorie de la demande de produits différenciés d'après leur origine) (Una teoría de la demanda de productos dis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
  6. Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier.

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