Growth and Change in the Vietnamese Labour Market: A decomposition of forecast trends in employment over 2010-2020
AbstractWe forecast detailed trends for employment by industry, occupation and qualification in Vietnam for the period 2010 - 2020. The forecast is conducted using VNET - a large-scaled computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Vietnamese economy. Inputs into the forecast include independent projections for changes in macroeconomic variables; trend movements in variables describing the details of industry input requirements and household preferences; assumptions relating to Vietnam's foreign trading environment; and projections for government policies. A decomposition analysis is used to identify the contribution of each of the exogenous shocks to the forecast outcomes. This analysis facilitates transparency in forecasting by clearly distinguishing and ranking the factors responsible for generating a particular forecast outcome. It also helps researchers to focus research effort towards improving estimates for those inputs to the simulation that have the most bearing on the outcomes forecast for the labour market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-216.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
labour market forecasting; long-run forecasting; decomposition analysis; Vietnamese economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2003.
"Trade, Growth, and the Size of Countries,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1995, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996.
"Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
- W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
- Paul S. Armington, 1969. "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une thÃ©orie de la demande de produits diffÃ©renciÃ©s d'aprÃ¨s leur origine) (Una teorÃa de la demanda de productos dis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(1), pages 159-178, March.
- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 1999.
"Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks,"
Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers
ip-73, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
- Razafindrakoto, Mireille & Cling, Jean-Pierre & Roubaud, François, 2009.
"Vietnam’s WTO accession and export-led growth : introduction,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/10659, Paris Dauphine University.
- Jean-Pierre Cling & Mireille Razafindrakoto & Francois Roubaud, 2009. "Vietnam's WTO Accession and Export-Led Growth- Introduction," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 118, pages 5-12.
- Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2013. "The Labor Market in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.