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Forecasting with a CGE model: does it work?

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Author Info

  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has been applied in policy analyses in the U.S. and Australia. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate "genuine forecasts" for 500 U.S. commodities/industries for the period 1998 to 2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes and with alternate forecasts derived as extrapolated trends from 1992 to 1998.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-197.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-197

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Related research

Keywords: CGE validation Forecasting U S CGE;

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References

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  1. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  3. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
  4. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, October.
  5. Dixon, Peter B & Menon, Jayant & Rimmer, Maureen T, 2000. "Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 33-55, March.
  6. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-32, December.
  7. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-77, March.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Forecasting with CGE models
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-04-22 14:05:00
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Cited by:
  1. Vipin Arora, 2011. "Arbitrage and the Price of Oil," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-535, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Mueller, Marc & Ferrari, Emanuele, 2011. "Deriving CGE Baselines from Macro-economic Projections," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114638, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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  1. Economic Logic blog

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