The Chinese Economy from 1997:2015: Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model
AbstractMC-HUGE is a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The core CGE part of the MC-HUGE model is based on that of the ORANI model. The dynamic mechanism of MC-HUGE is based on that of the MONASH model. This paper documents how the MC-HUGE model is calibrated to China's economic growth data from 1997 to 2005. It also reports how the model is used to forecast a growth path for the Chinese economy from 2005 to 2015. The historical and the forecast simulation produce a baseline or a business-as-usual scenario with which to compare the effects of any changes in economic policies or environment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-161.
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
China; CGE modelling; economic growth; oil;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2007-06-02 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-CNA-2007-06-02 (China)
- NEP-ENE-2007-06-02 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2007-06-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-SEA-2007-06-02 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TRA-2007-06-02 (Transition Economics)
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