The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model

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The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model

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Peter B. Dixon
Maureen T. Rimmer

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Abstract

USAGE is a 500 industry dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the US economy being developed at Monash University in collaboration with the US International Trade Commission. In common with the MONASH model of Australia, USAGE is designed for four modes of analysis: Historical, where we estimate changes in technology and consumer preferences; Decomposition, where we explain periods of economic history in terms of driving factors such as changes in technology and consumer preferences; Forecast, where we derive basecase forecasts for industries, occupations and regions that are consistent with trends from historical simulations and with available expert opinions; and Policy, where we derive deviations from basecase forecast paths caused by assumed policies. This paper reports our first set of historical and decomposition results. The historical results quantify several aspects of technical change in US industries for the period 1992 to 1998 including: intermediate-input-saving technical change; primary-factor-saving technical change; labor-capital bias in technical change; and import-domestic bias in technical change. The historical results also quantify shifts in consumer preferences between commodities. The decomposition results are applied in illustrative analyses of growth in US international trade between 1992 and 1998 and of growth in the US steel industry for this period.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-143.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-143

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Paper
- Maureen Rimmer & Peter Dixon, 2004. "The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 347, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
- Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp016, IIIS. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R & Powell, Alan A, 1996. "Features of Multiregional and Intertemporal AGE Modelling with GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 331-53, November.
W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 1999. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-73, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. [Downloadable!]
Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
Other versions:
- W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre. [Downloadable!]
Pearson, K. R., 1988. "Automating the computation of solutions of large economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 385-395, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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