Drought, Regions and the Australian Economy between 2001-02 and 2004-05
AbstractDuring the latter part of 2002 large areas of Australia have been affected by severe drought. In this paper, we examine the prospects for the Australian economy between 2001-02 and 2004-05, with particular emphasis on the implications of the drought for regions. Forecasts that take into account the drought and an assumed recovery are undertaken with the MONASH model. Year-on-year forecasts are provided for macro and micro variables at the national level. The paper then reports on simulations of the regional effects of the drought, undertaken with a new multiregional model, TERM. Detailed effects of the drought for the model's 45 regions are reported. The drought is estimated to lower 2002-03 GDP by 1.6 per cent and employment by 0.8 per cent. All mainland states are negatively affected. Eleven of the model's 45 regions are projected to have their GRPs lowered by more than 10 per cent by the drought, with a further seven regions being projected to have their GRPs lowered by between 5 and 10 per cent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-135.
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
- R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.