Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Structural Change, the Demand for Skilled Labour and Lifelong Learning

Contents:

Author Info

  • G.A. Meagher

Abstract

In a recent report, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has argued that certain key developments, including globalisation, population ageing and the diffusion of information technologies, are causing a shift in the demand for labour in modern advanced economies. Demand is thought to be moving away from relatively low-skilled agricultural and production occupations in favour of highly-skilled professional, technical, administrative and managerial occupations. Moreover, rising turnover in the labour market is tending to increase the rate at which existing skills are rendered obsolete. Hence workers in OECD countries are coming under mounting pressure to adapt and enhance their skills on an ongoing basis; that is, today's workers must participate in lifelong learning. This paper investigates the quantitative evidence for the proposition using, as a case study, the distribution of employment across occupations in Australia. Three changes in this distribution are considered: the change that actually occurred between 1986-87 and 1994-95, a forecast of the change that is likely to occur between 1994-95 and 2002-03, and an estimate of the change that will result from trade liberalisation proposals advanced by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. In each case the change in the occupational distribution is used to infer the effect on the demand for labour differentiated by qualification level, qualification field and age group. Unlike much of the structural analysis that accompanies discussions of lifelong learning, the approach here is comprehensive. The analysis is not restricted to occupations thought on a priori grounds to have a particular affinity to lifelong learning, but considers changes in employment across all occupations. Hence the role of particular occupations, such as those associated with information technology, for example, are able to be placed in a an economy-wide perspective. The analysis reveals that the factors driving the demand for labour are numerous and diverse, and suggests that generalisations and "stylised facts" are likely to be of only limited usefulness in determining training priorities.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-121.pdf
File Function: Initial version, 1997-08
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-121.htm
File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number g-121.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-121

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 14428, Melbourne, Victoria, 8001
Phone: 03 9919 1877
Web page: http://www.copsmodels.com/about.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
  2. G.A. Meagher, 1996. "The Medium Term Outlook for Labour Demand: An Economy Wide Assessment," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-87, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  3. Philip D. Adams & Karen M. Huff & Robert McDougall & K.R. Pearson & Alan A. Powell, 1996. "Medium- and Long-run Consequences for Australia of an APEC Free Trade Area: CGE Analyses using the GTAP and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-111, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.