Calibrating the Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model
AbstractThe Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model is widely-used for modelling the yield curve, yet many authors have reported ‘numerical difficulties’ when calibrating the model. We argue that the problem is twofold: firstly, the optimisation problem is not convex and has multiple local optima. Hence standard methods that are readily available in statistical packages are not appropriate. We implement and test an optimisation heuristic, Differential Evolution, and show that it is capable of reliably solving the model. Secondly, we also stress that in certain ranges of the parameters, the model is badly conditioned, thus estimated parameters are unstable given small perturbations of the data. We discuss to what extent these difficulties affect applications of the model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by COMISEF in its series Working Papers with number 031.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 30 Mar 2010
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Web page: http://www.comisef.eu
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-04-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CMP-2010-04-11 (Computational Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1994.
"Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994,"
IMF Working Papers
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- Marianna Lyra, 2010. "Heuristic Strategies in Finance – An Overview," Working Papers 045, COMISEF.
- Francisco Rivadeneyra, 2012. "The U.S.-Dollar Supranational Zero-Coupon Curve," Discussion Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
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- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2012. "Measuring the natural yield curve," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 108, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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