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¿Los pobres de hoy seran los pobres del mañana? Determinantes de la pobreza y magnitud de la vulnerabilidad en Cartagena de Indias

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  • Fabio Rueda de Vivero

    ()

  • Aaron Espinosa Espinosa

    ()

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    Abstract

    El presente estudio tiene como objetivo examinar la evolución y los factores determinantes de la pobreza en Cartagena durante el periodo 2002-2005. Se utiliza para ello un modelo probabilístico (probit) para identificar las características individuales que explican la incidencia de la pobreza en esta ciudad, el principal destino turístico colombiano y el más importante centro industrial de la región Caribe. Igualmente se analiza la vulnerabilidad, entendida como la posibilidad de que las personas puedan tener un consumo menor a la línea de pobreza en el futuro. Los resultados indican que la pobreza por ingresos ha disminuido en la ciudad pero sigue afectando una proporción significativa de la población local. Las variables laborales y de composición del hogar (por ejemplo, la presencia de niños) son las más importantes para explicar la incidencia de la pobreza en Cartagena. Por su parte, la vulnerabilidad es mayor que la pobreza, lo que representa un riesgo latente de empeorar la condición de vida de miles de habitantes de la ciudad.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD TECNOLÓGICA DE BOLÍVAR in its series DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO with number 005548.

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    Length: 32
    Date of creation: 29 May 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:col:000162:005548

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