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¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008

Author

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  • Alberto Jaramillo
  • Sebastián Gómez Cardona

Abstract

Con la formulación de la teoría de las expectativas racionales, el análisis de las predicciones de los agentes económicos ha cobrado un papel muy importante en el desarrollo de la mayoría de teorías económicas. En este trabajo se estiman tests de “No Causalidad” de Granger, Sims y Toda, y de Yamamoto, para determinar si las expectativas empresariales causan la coyuntura industrial en Colombia. Para ello, se utilizan datos de encuestas de opinión procedentes de gremios privados y del DANE. Los resultados son concluyentes: las expectativas parecen incidir en el comportamiento futuro de variables como ventas, producción y empleo industrial. De manera recurrente, los resultados sugieren que, en la formación de expectativas, toman parte esas mismas variables, las expectativas anteriores y el comportamiento de la demanda, variable exógena a la empresa, medida en los niveles de pedidos y de inventarios. ***** Since the appearance of rational expectations theory, the analysis of the predictions of economic agents has become a very important issue in recent economic theories. In this paper Granger, Sims and Toda and Yamamoto “Non-Causality” tests are estimated in order to determine if firm’s expectations cause industrial conjuncture in Colombia. Private surveys and official data are used. Results are conclusive: expectations affect the future values of industrial variables such as production, employment and sells. Furthermore, these variables, along with past expectations and demand (measured through inventories and orders) are essential when firm expectations are created.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Jaramillo & Sebastián Gómez Cardona, 2010. "¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 11110, Universidad EAFIT.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:011110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gallardo, Mauricio & Pedersen, Michael, 2008. "Encuestas de opinión empresarial del sector industrial en América Latina," Estudios Estadísticos 4770, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    3. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
    4. Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2006. "Bivariate causality analysis between FDI inflows and economic growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2006.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectativas empresariales; coyuntura;

    JEL classification:

    • B21 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Microeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • M16 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - International Business Administration

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