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Factores que inciden en la cobertura del sistema pensional en Colombia

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  • Juana Paola BUSTAMANTE IZQUIERDO

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    Abstract

    El presente artículo provee una descripción de las principales variables de cobertura en el sistema pensional en Colombia e identifica los factores que inciden en la afiliación al sistema utilizando un modelo probit. La evidencia muestra que la edad, la educación y la informalidad son variables claves para incrementar la cobertura en afiliación a pensiones. Luego se exponen los resultados obtenidos bajo diferentes escenarios a futuro con combinaciones de políticas que afectan las variables del modelo, de esta forma se encuentra que la afiliación podría llegar a niveles entre el 70% y 80% en el año 2020. Adicionalmente, se construye un índice como una Proxy de la afiliación, el cual muestra una relación inversa con la tasa de desempleo y con la informalidad en el tiempo, el cual se puede utilizar en futuros análisis econométricos. Finalmente se propone que para incrementar la cobertura en el sistema es necesario crear hábitos de ahorro, mejorar la pertinencia en la educación y disminuir los costos no laborales, entre otros.

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    File URL: https://colaboracion.dnp.gov.co/CDT/Estudios%20Econmicos/312.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN in its series ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA with number 002711.

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    Length: 60
    Date of creation: 23 Jun 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:col:000118:002711

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    Related research

    Keywords: Pensión; Informalidad; Seguridad social en pensiones;

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    Cited by:
    1. Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos León & Freddy H. Castro & Gabriel piraquive, . "Modelo de simulación del valor de la pensión de un trabajador en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 553, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Salazar, C, 2007. "Determinantes de la Adopción Voluntaria del Seguro de Cesantía
      [Determinants of Voluntary Adoptions of Unemployment Insurance]
      ," MPRA Paper 7693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Roberto Steiner & Irene Clavijo & Natalia Salazar, 2008. "Colombia´s Efforts at Achieving Inclusive and Sustainable Growth: The Road Traveled and the Challenges Ahead," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 009058, FEDESARROLLO.

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