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Implied probabilities of default from Colombian money market spreads: The Merton Model under equity market informational constraints

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  • Carlos León

Abstract

Informational constraints may turn the Merton Model for corporate credit risk impractical. Applying this framework to the Colombian financial sector is limited to four stock-market-listed firms; more than a hundred banking and non-banking firms are not listed. Within the same framework, firms' debt spread over the risk-free rate may be considered as the market value of the sold put option that makes risky debt trade below default-risk-free debt. In this sense, under some supplementary but reasonable assumptions, this paper uses money market spreads implicit in sell/buy backs to infer default probabilities for local financial firms. Results comprise a richer set of (38) banking and non-banking firms. As expected, default probabilities are non-negligible, where the ratio of default-probability-to-leverage is lower for firms with access to lender-of-last-resort facilities. The approach is valuable since it allows for inferring forward-looking default probabilities in the absence of stock prices. Yet, two issues may limit the validity of results to serial and cross-section analysis: overvaluation of default probabilities due to (i) spreads containing non-credit risk factors, and (ii) systematic undervaluation of the firm's value. However, cross-section assessments of default probabilities within a wider range of firms are vital for financial authorities' decision making, and represent a major improvement in the implementation of the Merton Model in absence of equity market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos León, 2012. "Implied probabilities of default from Colombian money market spreads: The Merton Model under equity market informational constraints," Borradores de Economia 10075, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:010075
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Fiscal risk and financial fragility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    2. Wilmar Cabrera & Adriana María Corredor-Waldron & Carlos Quicazán, 2012. "Requerimientos Macroprudenciales de capital y riesgo sistémico: Una aplicación para Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 074, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Martínez, Constanza & León, Carlos, 2016. "The cost of collateralized borrowing in the Colombian money market: Does connectedness matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 193-205.
    4. Carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," Borradores de Economia 11104, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Wilmar Cabrera-Rodríguez & Santiago Segovia-Baquero & Juan Sebastián Mariño-Montaña & Eduardo Yanquen, 2019. "Probabilidad de incumplimiento de entidades financieras colombianas: una aproximación estructural," Borradores de Economia 1097, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merton model; structural model; credit risk; probability of default; distance to default.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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