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¿Qué nos dicen los índices de confianza?

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Manuel Julio
  • Anderson Grajales

Abstract

En este trabajo se cuantifica el contenido informativo de los Índices de Confianza utilizados por el Banco de la República en la elaboración de su Informe sobre Inflación. Se estudian las frecuencias a las que ocurren sus variaciones y se comparan con las frecuencias de medidas similares de los Estados Unidos y de algunos países de Latinoamérica. Se estudia la relación entre los índices de confianza y un conjunto substancialmente grande de variables indicadoras de la actividad económica tanto locales como externas, particularmente con el PIB y sus desagregaciones. Se determina si los índices de confianza o sus preguntas individuales aportan información adicional a la que se tiene en ejercicios en tiempo real sobre la determinación del estado de la economía. Finalmente, se estudia la relación entre los índices de confianza con los de otros países durante la reciente crisis financiera internacional.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Julio & Anderson Grajales, 2011. "¿Qué nos dicen los índices de confianza?," Borradores de Economia 8752, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:008752
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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra659.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Kennedy, 1991. "Empirical relationships between the total industrial production index and its diffusion indexes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 163, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q III), pages 39-70.
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    Cited by:

    1. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2019. "Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index in Colombia: A structural FAVAR analysis," Borradores de Economia 1063, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Margarita MARÍN JARAMILLO, 2016. "Pronóstico del Consumo Privado: Usando datos de alta frecuencia para el pronóstico de variables de baja frecuencia," Archivos de Economía 14828, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    3. José Mauricio Gil León & Daniel Eduardo Silva-Pinzón, 2019. "Índice de incertidumbre de política económica (EPU) para Colombia, 2000-2017," Ensayos de Economía 18198, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Índices de confianza; Colombia; análisis espectral; correlación cruzada; análisis de varianza; stepwise.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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