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¿Qué nos dicen los índices de confianza?


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  • Juan Manuel Julio


  • Anderson Grajales



En este trabajo se cuantifica el contenido informativo de los Índices de Confianza utilizados por el Banco de la República en la elaboración de su Informe sobre Inflación. Se estudian las frecuencias a las que ocurren sus variaciones y se comparan con las frecuencias de medidas similares de los Estados Unidos y de algunos países de Latinoamérica. Se estudia la relación entre los índices de confianza y un conjunto substancialmente grande de variables indicadoras de la actividad económica tanto locales como externas, particularmente con el PIB y sus desagregaciones. Se determina si los índices de confianza o sus preguntas individuales aportan información adicional a la que se tiene en ejercicios en tiempo real sobre la determinación del estado de la economía. Finalmente, se estudia la relación entre los índices de confianza con los de otros países durante la reciente crisis financiera internacional.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 008752.

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Length: 82
Date of creation: 02 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:008752

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Keywords: Índices de confianza; Colombia; análisis espectral; correlación cruzada; análisis de varianza; stepwise.;

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  1. James E. Kennedy, 1991. "Empirical relationships between the total industrial production index and its diffusion indexes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 163, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 39-70.
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Cited by:
  1. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.


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