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Inflación y expectativas de inflación en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Eliana González
  • Munir Jalil
  • Jose Vicente Romero Chamorro

Abstract

En este documento se desarrolla una exploración empírica sobre la información contenida en las expectativas de inflación obtenidas tanto directa (a través de encuestas) como indirectamente (implícitas en el mercado de deuda pública). Para esto, se realizan pruebas de insesgamiento y eficiencia, se exploran cuales son algunos de los determinantes de las expectativas y se evalúa su capacidad predictiva sobre el comportamiento futuro de la inflación. De acuerdo a los resultados, se puede concluir que las tres medidas de expectativas de inflación empleadas contienen información relevante para pronosticar la inflación, pero dichas medidas por si solas no son un buen pronóstico de la inflación futura.

Suggested Citation

  • Eliana González & Munir Jalil & Jose Vicente Romero Chamorro, 2010. "Inflación y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7307, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
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    3. Barnett, Alina & Groen, Jan J J & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Time-varying inflation expectations and economic fluctuations in the United Kingdom: a structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 392, Bank of England.
    4. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    5. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 163, European Central Bank.
    6. Hasan Bakhshi & Anthony Yates, 1998. "Are UK inflation expectations rational?," Bank of England working papers 81, Bank of England.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Parra-Amado & Davinson Stev Abril-Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(80), pages 146-158, June.
    2. Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2017. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del Gobierno colombiano," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 78, February.
    3. Santiago Gamba Santamaría & Eliana Rocío González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2016. "¿Están ancladas las expectativas de inflación en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 940, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Carlos Huertas Campos & Eliana González Molano & Cristhian Ruiz Cardozo, 2015. "La formación de expectativas de inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 12699, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; pronósticos; expectativas de inflación.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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