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Importaciones Agropecuarias: A Que Responden?

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  • Enrique Ospina G.

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    Abstract

    Durante la década de los noventa las importaciones agropecuarias en Colombia se han incrementado considerablemente contribuyendo al déficit de la cuenta corriente, lo cual ha causado preocupación. Este incremento de las importaciones agropecuarias se ha atribuido a la apertura económica, al mismo tiempo que se le señala como la razón más importante detrás del comportamiento mediocre del sector agropecuario. No son pocos los que han sugerido echar atrás el proceso de liberación del comercio exterior, y aunque tal cambio de política es poco probable debido a los compromisos internacionales adquiridos, es evidente que dicho proceso se ha desacelerado en los últimos tres años. Este estudio examina algunos efectos del proceso de apertura internacional en el sector agropecuario, evaluando las relaciones entre importaciones agropecuarias y variables macroeconómicas como la tasa real de cambio y el ingreso, al tiempo que verifica la hipótesis de un cambio estructural en la demanda de importaciones agropecuarias como resultado de la apertura del comercio internacional en 1991. Para lograr este objetivo se desarrolla un modelo econométrico y se evalúan las relaciones de largo plazo entre las variables por medio de cointegración. Los resultados indican que el incremento de las importaciones agropecuarias se explica principalmente por la revaluación de la tasa real de cambio y el aumento del ingreso per capita de los consumidores, en tanto que las políticas de apertura han contribuido al desplazamiento de la demanda por importaciones agropecuarias aunque en una magnitud menor a la que comúnmente se le ha atribuido.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra107.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002817.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 31 Oct 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002817

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    1. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Peter Montiel, 1997. "Reform and Growth in Latin America: All Pain, No Gain?," Research Department Publications 4078, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Cointegración, exogeneidad y Crítica de Lucas: Funciones de Demanda de Dinero en Colombia: Un ejercicio más," Borradores de Economia 075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    4. Valdes, A, 1996. "Surveillance of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy in Latin America during Major Policy Reform," World Bank - Discussion Papers 349, World Bank.
    5. Adams, Dale W & Von Pischke, J. D., 1992. "Microenterprise credit programs: Deja vu," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1463-1470, October.
    6. Maurizio Bussolo & David Roland-Holst, 1998. "Colombia and the NAFTA," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009209, FEDESARROLLO.
    7. Johnson, D Gale, 1997. "Agriculture and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Gerd Schwartz & Réjane Hugounenq & Benedict J. Clements, 1995. "Government Subsidies - Concepts, International Trends, and Reform Options," IMF Working Papers 95/91, International Monetary Fund.
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