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Balance Fiscal Estructural Y Cíclico Del Gobierno Nacional Central De Colombia 1980-2002

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Author Info

  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

  • Jenny Berthel

    ()

  • Miguel Gómez

Abstract

Tener conocimiento del balance fiscal estructural es importante tanto para el análisis como para la formulación ex ante de la política fiscal. En este documento proponemos una metodología para la determinación del balance estructural de las finanzas del Gobierno Nacional Central, basados en el procedimiento estándar del FMI. La metodología se construye a partir del cálculo del balance estructural total y primario, con sus correspondientes balances cíclicos, para el período 1980-2002. Utilizamos diferentes técnicas econométricas para la estimación de parámetros relevantes. Los resultados indican que a comienzos de la década de los ochenta y de los noventa el balance fiscal estructural del gobierno estuvo por encima del observado, es decir, el gobierno tuvo un menor déficit o mayor superávit, en una magnitud entre 0.1% y 0.4% del PIB, debido a los movimientos cíclicos del PIB y/o las desviaciones de los precios del crudo por encima de su tendencia de largo plazo y/o por las menores erogaciones por transferencias territoriales. Para el resto del período de análisis sucedió lo contrario, es decir, el balance estructural del gobierno estuvo por debajo del observado, en una magnitud entre 0.2% y 0.4% del PIB. La magnitud de las diferencias lleva a la conclusión que el balance fiscal del gobierno central de Colombia es básicamente de naturaleza estructural, es decir, que no basta con que el país crezca a tasas iguales al potencial sino que se necesita mucho más esfuerzo (en ingresos y gastos) para ajustar las finanzas del gobierno.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002038.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 30 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002038

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Keywords: Balance Estructural;

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References

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  1. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003603, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Hal Hill & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2012. "Introduction," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 129-142, August.
  3. Carlos Esteban Posada & Carlos Caballero Argáez, 2003. "Una Nota Sobre Los Elementos Coyunturales Y Estructurales Del Deficit Fiscal En El Caso Colombiano Reciente," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003718, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Natalia SALAZAR & Diego PRADA, 2003. "El balance estructural del Gobierno Central en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 002456, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
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Cited by:
  1. Mauricio Cardenas & Roberto Junguito & Mónica Pachón, 2006. "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes in Colombia: The Effects of the 1991 Constitution," Research Department Publications 3198, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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