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Selección Estratégica de Activos bajo No-normalidad: Análisis del Rendimiento de un Portafolio de Inversión

Author

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  • Orlando Alberto Camacho Reina

Abstract

La evidencia empírica sugiere que el comportamiento de los retornos de activos financieros está caracterizado por momentos estadísticos de orden superior, como asimetría y “colas pesadas”. Para un inversionista, esto implica que estimaciones convencionales de riesgo subestiman la frecuencia y magnitud de eventos extremos. Este trabajo incorpora la no-normalidad de los retornos en un esquema de optimización de media-CVaR mediante el uso de distribuciones univariadas α-estables y copulas-t. Los resultados sugieren que las asignaciones óptimas, el riesgo, la diversificación y el desempeno de un portafolio son significativamente diferentes a aquellos que resultarían del esquema tradicional propuesto por Markowitz (1952). Emplear esta metodología hubiera permitido disminuir la probabilidad de afrontar pérdidas extremas en la reciente crisis financiera.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlando Alberto Camacho Reina, 2013. "Selección Estratégica de Activos bajo No-normalidad: Análisis del Rendimiento de un Portafolio de Inversión," Documentos CEDE 11891, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:011891
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimización de portafolios; distribuciones α-estables; valor en riesgo condicional (CVaR);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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