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Efectos De La Liberalización Comercial: Un Análisis De Equilibrio Parcial Para El Sector De Arroz En Colombia

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  • Victor Dulio Chique Acero

    ()

  • Ramón Rosales Álvarez

    ()

  • Henry Samacá Prieto

    ()

Abstract

Mediante el análisis de cointegración y el modelo de vector de corrección de errores (VEC) se estimó el sistema de ecuaciones de oferta, demanda y precio del arroz blanco para Colombia, en el periodo comprendido entre 1970 - 2004. La demanda estimada muestra los signos esperados y es inelástica con respecto al precio del arroz, al ingreso disponible, al precio internacional del arroz y al precio internacional del trigo. La oferta estimada tiene los signos esperados y es elástica con respecto al precio del arroz y al área cosechada e inelástica con respecto a los precios de los factores e insumos. A través de un análisis de equilibrio parcial se encontró que ante una política de liberalización comercial donde el precio doméstico disminuye hasta el nivel del precio internacional distorsionado, el cambio neto en el bienestar de los siguientes agentes económicos es: consumidores US$ 236.10, productores -US$ 141.80, Gobierno -US$38.49 y sociedad US$ 55.81 millones anuales. Para el escenario donde el precio doméstico se reduce hasta el nivel del precio internacional sin distorsiones, el cambio neto en los mismos agentes económicos es: consumidores US$175.99, productores -US$ 114.11, Gobierno -US$ 29.60 y sociedad US$ 32.28 millones anuales.

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File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/publicaciones/d2006-37.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its series DOCUMENTOS CEDE with number 002421.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 25 Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000089:002421

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Related research

Keywords: Arroz blanco; liberalización comercial; cointegración; vector de corrección de errores; análisis de bienestar;

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