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(English) The Rome Metropolitan Area’s population: recent demographic evolution and forecast to 2024 (Italiano) La popolazione dell’area metropolitana di Roma. Evoluzione demografica e previsioni al 2024

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  • Oliviero Casacchia
  • Massimiliano Crisci
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    Abstract

    (English) This working paper presents the results of a research project financed by the Province of Rome and conducted by the CNR IRPPS and the Department of Statistical Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome. During the last decade international migration and urban spread have been the main demographic processes in the Rome metropolitan area (RMA). On these population trends was based a range of hypotheses referred to the future demographic dynamics in the period 2009-24. Population forecasts have been conducted applying two multiregional models, stochastic and deterministic, on five concentric subareas dividing the territory of Rome (core, urban periphery and three rings of metropolitan peripheries). According to the scenarios, the population of the RMA is going to increase and to get older. Moreover, if urban policies don’t change, the demographic weight of the city of Rome is going to decrease further. (Italiano) Il working paper presenta i risultati di un progetto di ricerca finanziato dalla Provincia di Roma e condotto dall’IRPPS-CNR e dal Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche della Sapienza Università di Roma. Nel corso dell’ultimo decennio le immigrazioni straniere e i trasferimenti residenziali dal core urbano alle periferie hanno rappresentato gli eventi demografici più rilevanti nell’area metropolitana di Roma. Di queste tendenze si è tenuto conto nel definire le ipotesi alla base degli scenari evolutivi della popolazione dal 2009 al 2024. Le previsioni sono state condotte applicando due modelli previsivi multiregionali, di tipo stocastico e deterministico, sulle cinque sub-aree concentriche nelle quali è stata suddivisa l’area romana. Gli scenari concordano nel prevedere un incremento e un invecchiamento della popolazione dell’area, oltre ad un’ulteriore diminuzione del peso demografico della città di Roma.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Research Council, Institute for Research on Population and Social Policies in its series IRPPS Working Papers with number 56:2013.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:cnz:wpaper:56:2013

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    Keywords: (English) Population forecast; Rome; Demographic dynamics; Stochastic method; Italian Metropolitan areas (Italiano) Previsioni demografiche; Roma; Dinamiche demografiche; Metodo stocastico; Aree metropolitane italiane;

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    1. Bonifazi Corrado & Heins F., 2001. "Le dinamiche dei processi di urbanizzazione in Italia e il dualismo Nord-Sud: un'analisi di lungo periodo," Rivista economica del Mezzogiorno, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 713-748.
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