Quantitative forecasting for Tourisme: OLS and ARIMAX approaches
AbstractThe paper analyses, estimates and forecasts the demand for international and domestic tourism to Sardinia (Italy). Monthly data are used for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Concepts such as seasonal and long run unit roots are employed. Two econometric approaches, the OLS and ARIMAX, are used that give satisfactory results in terms of both the estimation and forecasting phases. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for tourism demand to Sardinia for the period between January and December 2003.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 200303.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
monthly data; unit roots; ols; arimax;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-07-26 (All new papers)
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