Quantitative forecasting for Tourisme: OLS and ARIMAX approaches
AbstractThe paper analyses, estimates and forecasts the demand for international and domestic tourism to Sardinia (Italy). Monthly data are used for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Concepts such as seasonal and long run unit roots are employed. Two econometric approaches, the OLS and ARIMAX, are used that give satisfactory results in terms of both the estimation and forecasting phases. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for tourism demand to Sardinia for the period between January and December 2003.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 200303.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
monthly data; unit roots; ols; arimax;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-07-26 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-77, April.
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
- Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
- Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antonello Pau).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.