Expected Regime Change: Transition Toward Nominal Exchange Rate Stability
AbstractThis work presents an extension of a small open economy DSGE model allowing the transition toward a monetary policy regime aimed at exchange rate stability to be described. The model is estimated using the Bayesian technique to fit the properties of the Czech economy. In the scenarios assessed, the monetary authority announces and changes its policy so that it is focused solely on stabilizing the nominal exchange rate after a specific transition period is over. Four representative forms of monetary policy are followed to evaluate their properties over the announced transition period. Welfare loss functions assessing macroeconomic stability are defined, allowing the implications of the transition period regime choice for macroeconomic stability to be assessed. As these experiments show, exchange rate stabilization over the transition period does not deliver the lowest welfare loss. Under the assumptions taken, the strict inflation-targeting regime is identified as the best-performing regime for short transition periods. However, it can be concluded that for longer transition periods the monetary policy regime should respond to changes in the exchange rate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2013/02.
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
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monetary policy change; new Keynesian models; small open economy.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2013-03-30 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2013-03-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-03-30 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2013-03-30 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-03-30 (Transition Economics)
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