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Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device

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  • Jan Filacek
  • Branislav Saxa

Abstract

Do private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bank’s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2010/13.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2010/13

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Keywords: Central bank; coordination; forecast.;

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References

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  1. Henrik Jensen, . "Optimal Degrees of Tranaparency in Monetary Policymaking," EPRU Working Paper Series 01-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Jiri Bohm & Petr Kral & Branislav Saxa, 2009. "Perception is Always Right: The CNB’s Monetary Policy in the Media," Working Papers 2009/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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Cited by:
  1. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky.

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