Central Bank Forecasts as a Coordination Device
AbstractDo private analysts coordinate their forecasts via central bank forecasts? In this paper, we examine private and central bank forecasts for the Czech Republic. The evolution of the standard deviation of private forecasts as well as the distance from the central bankâ€™s forecasts are used to study whether a coordination effect exists, how it is influenced by uncertainty, and the effects of changes in central bank communication. The results suggest that private analysts coordinate their forecasts for the interest rate and inflation, while no or limited evidence exists for the exchange rate and GDP growth.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2010/13.
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
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Central bank; coordination; forecast.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-06-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-06-18 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-06-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-06-18 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2011-06-18 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
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