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FOREX Microstructure, Invisible Price Determinants,and the Central Bank's Understanding of Exchange Rate Formation

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  • Alexis Derviz

Abstract

The paper investigates the transmission of macroeconomic factors into the price-setting behavior of a specific dealer in the FX market. This problem is viewed from the perspective of a central banker who observes the price evolution but does not make the market in the home currency. The central banker's task is to explain the forex behavior in terms of conventional economic logic. The analysis is based on a model of a multiple dealer market under two organizations - direct inter-dealer and brokered. The model is constructed in such a way as to reflect the most prominent features of the market for the Czech koruna and, accordingly, to address some issues of key relevance to the Czech National Bank's exchange rate policy. We show that the totality of the exchange rate-relevant fundamental factors influence the market maker's behavior through a single sufficient statistic, his 'marginal' valuation of foreign currency holdings. Under the two studied trading mechanisms, the marginal valuations across market participants determine the equilibrium exchange rate by means of different trade patterns. Specifically, the brokered market is inferior to the direct one in terms of welfare improvement through trade. It takes a higher inter-dealer trade volume in the brokered market to absorb a new price impulse. Therefore, the central banker would do best by monitoring the brokered segment (as the only partially transparent one available), but by conducting interventions in the direct segment, where the desired impact is easier to achieve.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2003/06.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/06

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Keywords: forex microstructure; multiple dealership; order flow; pricing schedule.;

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References

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  1. Bernhardt, Dan & Hughson, Eric, 1997. "Splitting Orders," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 69-101.
  2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  4. Foucault, Thierry, 1999. "Order flow composition and trading costs in a dynamic limit order market1," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 99-134, May.
  5. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1994. " Is the Electronic Open Limit Order Book Inevitable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1127-61, September.
  6. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, December.
  7. Alexis Derviz, 2000. "Continuous Time Decision-Making in a Partially Decentralized Multiple Dealership Forex Market and Equilibrium Exchange Rate," Bulletin of the Czech Econometric Society, The Czech Econometric Society, vol. 7(12).
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Frömmel & Norbert Kiss M. & Klára Pintér, 2011. "Macroeconomic announcements, communication and order flow on the Hungarian foreign exchange market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 172-188, 04.
  2. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Alexis Derviz, 2007. "Modeling Electronic FX Brokerage as a Fast Order-Driven Marketunder Heterogeneous Private Values and Information," Working Papers IES 2007/16, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2007.

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