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External and Fiscal Sustainability of the Czech Economy: A Quick Look Through the IMF's Night-Vision Goggles

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  • Ales Bulir

Abstract

The paper presents the rationale for spreadsheet-based debt sustainability assessments. Policymakers can use these exercises in two ways. First, assessments of possible debt developments provide 'reality checks' of macroeconomic projections. Second, the financial stability exercise may indicate vulnerability to crises. Empirically, using the IMF debt sustainability template, the paper finds that the external position of the Czech Republic appears sustainable under most plausible history-based scenarios. However, a deep, two-year recession coupled with fiscal indiscipline might double the 2002 stock of foreign debt by the end of the decade. The fiscal position is significantly more fragile and the fiscal debt-to-GDP ratio quickly approaches 60 percent under some of the more pronounced shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Research and Policy Notes with number 2004/04.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2004/04

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Keywords: Debt sustainability; Macroeconomic projections; Vulnerability.;

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Cited by:
  1. Ales Krejdl, 2006. "Fiscal Sustainability - Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability," Working Papers 2006/3, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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